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Wednesday, 29 June 2011
Forex Flash: EUR/USD undergoes ´buy the rumor, sell the fact´ reaction – Wells Fargo
Forex Flash: EUR/USD undergoes ´buy the rumor, sell the fact´ reaction – Wells Fargo
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD has dropped under 1.4400 in the wake of the Greek vote, as Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Bank, reports an immediate ´buy the rumor, sell the fact´ reaction. “Furthermore, while today’s outcome significantly reduces the risk of a ‘worst-case’ scenario for the euro, we do not expect debt problems Greece or other peripheral Eurozone members to fall off the market’s radar any time soon.”
“In light of today’s initial market reaction, we continue to see asymmetric risks for the euro. The positives of a Greek bailout and a July ECB rate hike are already largely priced in, while the negatives of the ongoing debt crisis and slowing growth momentum could translate into more significant euro downside in the months ahead.”
Pound Rises To 6-day High Against US Dollar
The pound advanced to a 6-day high of 1.6075 against the US dollar around 11:25 am ET, compared to yesterday's close of 1.6003. The cable is presently worth 1.6065 with 1.6090 seen as the next likely resistance level, ie, the 10-day SMA.Forecast on Spot Gold (Spot Gold, NZDUSD, USDSGD)
Forecast on Spot Gold (Spot Gold, NZDUSD, USDSGD)
SPOT GOLD SPOT GOLD closed @ 15015 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day’s trading range. The High was 3 Dollars from Precise Trader’s Res Tgt 1 and the Low was 2 Dollars from Precise Trader’s Sup Zone 1. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the Price is Below the MA, so [...]Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
EURUSD EURUSD closed @ 14370 which was ABOVE the open and breached the previous day’s high. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader’s Res Tgt 2 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader’s Sup Zone 1. The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish but Weak and the Price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach [...]Yuan edges up vs dollar; US adds pressure for more yuan rise
Yuan edges up vs dollar; US adds pressure for more yuan rise
…high pressures, China’s central bank has already pushed the yuan to a series of record highs versus the dollar this year by setting its daily mid-point against the U.S. currency at successive peaks. Benchmark one-year dollar/yuan non-deliverable f…Monday, 27 June 2011
Euro Pares Back Losses in Overnight on Proposed Debt Rollover Deal
Euro Pares Back Losses in Overnight on Proposed Debt Rollover Deal
The Euro gained in the overnight, rallying nearly 100-pips against the U.S. Dollar at the beginning of the European session, as the markets were flooded with optimism following commentary by French President Nicolas Sarkozy that French lenders were close to agreeing to a 70 percent rollover on Greek debt. The deal would market a significant step forward in the debt negotiations, as France’s involvement with private lenders would denote a new rescue plan that could potentially stave off default for the embattled periphery nation, as Sarkozy noted that “We don’t let Greece Fall. We will defend the euro. It’s in all of our interests.”
The plan, in its current form, would get private lenders to reinvest 50 percent of Athenian loan repayments into new 30-year loans, with the other 20 percent of repayments entering a fund to act as a guarantee to make the newly-issued Greek debt appear more stable.
Euro-Dollar 1-minute Chart: June 27, 2011
The Euro-Dollar has found support in the pre-North American session after U.S. consumer spending data fell short of expectations in May, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The headline figure of 0.0 percent in May disappointed the 0.1 percent forecast, as it appears American consumers are cutting back on their spending amid higher inflationary pressures and an unstable labor market. The data falls in line, however, with the Federal Reserve’s estimate that growth would be trimmed in the coming months, so what normally would have been disappointing data was somewhat anticipated by the market.
Other data released in the pre-North American hours showed that personal income rose by 0.3 percent in May, after rising by a revised 0.3 percent in the prior month, falling short of the 0.4 percent expectation. Personal income for Americans has been rising at a steady pace since September 2010, the last time the measure was unchanged. Income expanded the most n January 2011, at a 1.1 percent pace. With May’s income figure growing while the spending figure remained the same, the savings rate rose to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent in April.
U.S. Personal Income (MoM): June 2008 to Present
Courtesy: Bloomberg
In the wake of the release, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index initially rose, from 9721.27, to as high as 9729.78. At the time this report was written, the index had fallen back to 9725.35. With the Dollar holding as the strongest currency in the overnight session, it is possible that further gains for the index continue into the North American session, as the trade-weighted index remains higher off of its session lows of 9696.28.
Fundamental Headlines
NZDUSD: The Kiwi-Dollar pair was the most disappointing performer in the Asian and European sessions, falling back 1.27 percent at the time this report was written. The antipodean currency faced increasing headwinds in the overnight as trade balance data from May fell short of expectations, a 605M balance versus 1000M expected, down from a revised 1148M figure in April. Exports declined slightly, though the greater-than-expected boost in imports weighed on the aggregate figure. The Kiwi, the strongest currency across the majors since mid-March, has boosted domestic demand for foreign goods, as New Zealanders have stronger purchasing power abroad.
Taking a look at price action, the NZD/USD pair has fallen below its 50-DMA today at 0.80356, with 0.8000 as the next level of major psychological support. The pair has remained above the key 0.8000 exchange rate since May 26, but a break below with meaningful follow through (consecutive days closing below said rate) would expose the next major level of support at 0.7797, the 100-DMA. The daily RSI points towards further losses, with it having fallen to 47 from 55 last Wednesday. Similarly, the NZD/USD pair’s MACD Histogram is widening into a bearish divergence, now at -19. Also pointing towards further losses is the Slow Stochastic oscillator, which, after having issued a sell signal on June 24, is trending lower, with the %K less than the %D, at 38 and 44, respectively.
FOREX: US Dollar May Shed Early Gains on Greece Budget Vote Bets
FOREX: US Dollar May Shed Early Gains on Greece Budget Vote Bets
expectations). To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market. Learn currency trading with a free practice …
Dollar rises on equities lift
Dollar rises on equities lift
per cent to close at 264.01. The “risk on” mood saw increased demand for growth-linked currencies such as the kiwi dollar. The currency’s upward momentum was capped by a fall in commodities which slipped lower despite signs that oil prices were s…FOREX-Euro rallies vs dollar, yen on Greece vote hopes
FOREX-Euro rallies vs dollar, yen on Greece vote hopes
…from the ongoing euro-zone debt crisis, as investors have been cutting back on short positions in the U.S. currency. [IMM/FX] “The fortunes of the USD will be determined largely by the ‘not being the EUR,’ capitalizing on any bad news and retreatin…US Dollar Rallies Ahead of Vote in Greek Parliament
US Dollar Rallies Ahead of Vote in Greek Parliament
The US dollar gained against most of its major counterparts as the concerns about the outcome of Greece’s vote for the bailout. The hopes for Greece among some investors allowed the euro to bounce after the decline.Trading Week Outlook: Jun. 27 – Jul. 1
Trading Week Outlook: Jun. 27 – Jul. 1
The week ahead will be crucial for the future fate of the euro as all eyes turn to the vote by the Greek Parliament on the new austerity package and the efforts of EU leaders to avert the first default of a sovereign nation since the creation of the Euro-zone. In preparation for the new [...]Friday, 24 June 2011
Bank of Canada lays off staff in cost-cutting plan
Bank of Canada lays off staff in cost-cutting plan
…June 24 (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada has cut 88 positions from its payroll as part of wider plan by the federal government to balance its budget, a spokesman for the central bank said on Friday. The central bank made the cuts as the result of a r…Stocks end week on edge over Europe’s debt woes; Treasury yields fall, oil inches up
Stocks end week on edge over Europe’s debt woes; Treasury yields fall, oil inches up
…Italian stock market slumped 1.6%, though other European markets were mixed. The euro currency fell for a third day, ending at $1.419, down from $1.426 on Thursday. Jitters over Europe drove more investors into the relative safety of Treasury bonds,…US Dollar Rises vs. Euro on Greece, Falls vs. Yen on GDP
US Dollar Rises vs. Euro on Greece, Falls vs. Yen on GDP
The US dollar gained today against the euro as Greece’s problems still undermine the shared European currency. The greenback weakened against the Japanese yen as the US economic growth slowed in the first quarter of this year.
Thursday, 23 June 2011
Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Fed Unwinds QE2, U.S. Dollar Consolidates Ahead Of Bernanke Press Conference
Fed Unwinds QE2, U.S. Dollar Consolidates Ahead Of Bernanke Press Conference
Euro Falls After Confidence Vote
Euro Falls After Confidence Vote
The euro dropped today even after Greece’s Prime Minister George Papandreou won the confidence vote as traders think that he’ll struggle to implement austerity measures.
Tuesday, 21 June 2011
Greece’s Bailout Delayed, Swiss Franc Jumps
Greece’s Bailout Delayed, Swiss Franc Jumps
The Swiss franc advanced today as the European Union leaders considered withholding half of the €12 billion portion of the Greek aid, increasing demand for safety of the Swiss currency.
Canadian Dollar Weakness Reflects Global Macro Fears
Canadian Dollar Weakness Reflects Global Macro Fears
(eToro Blog) The Canadian Dollar has fallen close to a 3-month low against the greenback as investors continue to seek the relative safety of the U.S. dollar amidst continued speculation that European governments won’t be successful in preventing a Greek default.The Eurozone’s top economic policymakers are pushing Greece to pass laws to cut its deficit and sell state assets.
Greece’s Bailout Delayed, Swiss Franc Jumps
Greece’s Bailout Delayed, Swiss Franc Jumps
The Swiss franc advanced today as the European Union leaders considered withholding half of the €12 billion portion of the Greek aid, increasing demand for safety of the Swiss currency.
US Jobless Claims Go Down, Korea’s Won Goes Up
US Jobless Claims Go Down, Korea’s Won Goes Up
The South Korean won climbed today as the drop of unemployment claims in the US boosted demand for riskier assets, including Korea’ currency.
US Dollar Falls as Traders Expect Fed Would Maintain Stimulus
US Dollar Falls as Traders Expect Fed Would Maintain Stimulus
The US dollar weakened on today’s trading session as analysts say that this week’s reports will show weakness of the US housing market. The unfavorable fundamentals will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero, undermining the dollar.
Loonie Gains vs. Greenback on Fundamentals, Falls vs. Euro
Loonie Gains vs. Greenback on Fundamentals, Falls vs. Euro
The Canadian dollar advanced versus the US dollar on the good outlook for today’s Canadian macroeconomic reports, while fell against the euro as promises of resolution of the Greek crisis bolstered Europe’s shared currency.
Australian Dollar Falls on Monetary Policy Minutes
Australian Dollar Falls on Monetary Policy Minutes
The Australian dollar weakened today after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting indicated that there’ll be no increase of the interest rates in the near future.
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