A collapse on the stock markets, zero rates in the US until mid−2013 and ECB intervention on the bond markets are events which under normal circumstances would probably have been price sensitive for EUR/USD, but it has instead remained relatively stable , according to Lutz Karpowit, analyst at Commerzbank.
"However, that does not mean that the FX market remains unaffected by this data: Instead the effects on euro and dollar cancel each other out", said Karpowit. "On the one hand the fear of renewed quantitative easing (QE3) is weakening the USD. On the other hand the euro is under pressure due to the risk of a further escalation of the European debt crisis. On the data front, bad US prints should paradoxically continue to support the US dollar via an increase in risk aversion".
On this backdrop, the Commerzbank analyst team expects a trading range of 1.3800-1.4500 for EUR/USD next week.
"However, that does not mean that the FX market remains unaffected by this data: Instead the effects on euro and dollar cancel each other out", said Karpowit. "On the one hand the fear of renewed quantitative easing (QE3) is weakening the USD. On the other hand the euro is under pressure due to the risk of a further escalation of the European debt crisis. On the data front, bad US prints should paradoxically continue to support the US dollar via an increase in risk aversion".
On this backdrop, the Commerzbank analyst team expects a trading range of 1.3800-1.4500 for EUR/USD next week.
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